The gold-versus-stocks slugfest never really ends. Every few years, gold throws a punch. Stocks usually win the fight, but not always. Right now, gold's swinging hard again, and people want to know if this is the start of something bigger or just another sugar rush.
Let's talk numbers, because numbers don't lie. Since 1992, gold's compound annual growth rate sits at 7.63%. The S&P 500? A chunkier 11.21%.
Since 1992, gold's grown 7.63% a year. Stocks? A chunkier 11.21%. Numbers don't lie.
Over the last 20 years, gold climbed 607.7% while stocks rocketed 855.1%. Ten years back, gold managed 190.3% against the S&P's 294.2%. Stocks have been the better long-term bet. That's just fact.
But 2025 flipped the script. Gold posted a jaw-dropping 66.22% return, dwarfing the S&P 500's 17.78%, according to NYU Stern data cited by Monetary Metals. JustETF showed gold at 29.10% versus 23.70% for stocks.
Curvo's shorter windows tell a similar story—gold at 21.6% over the last year versus 19.2% for the S&P, and 18.0% annually over five years compared to 13.6%. Something's shifting, and it's not subtle.
History backs up gold's occasional heroics. Since 1971, gold outperformed stocks in 24 of 55 years, averaging a 27.51% edge in those winning years. When stocks tanked, gold showed up—outperforming in 9 of 11 negative years for the S&P, averaging 13.71% while stocks lost 14.24%. Gold's basically the friend who shows up when everything's falling apart, then disappears for a decade.
Volatility-wise, the two are basically twins. Standard deviations sit at 15.08% for gold and 15.18% for stocks. Barely different. But risk-adjusted returns favor stocks—gold's Sharpe ratio is 0.48, versus 0.69 for the S&P. During periods of heightened market stress, traders often rotate into safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen alongside gold to shield their portfolios from volatility.
CNBC's 30-year data reinforces the long game belongs to equities: 7.96% for gold, 10.67% for stocks. Notably, gold's appeal extends beyond Western markets, with currencies like the South African Rand being heavily influenced by gold price movements given South Africa's status as a major gold-producing nation. African emerging market currencies more broadly face currency volatility risks that make gold an especially critical hedge for forex traders operating across the continent.
