M&A activity told a different story. Deal count hit 41 in Q1 2025, down a brutal 40% from the same period in 2024. The EV/LTM EBITDA multiple stood at 8.3x, dropping 0.3x year-over-year. Subdued dealmaking should pick up as conditions improve and companies get more strategic focus. Or so they say.
M&A froze hard in Q1—41 deals, down 40%, with multiples sliding despite the usual optimistic talk about recovery ahead.
The energy shift kept accelerating demand for copper, graphite, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and manganese. Copper markets enter structural deficit in 2026, with projections showing a shortfall of 19 million metric tons by 2050. Graphite faces technical deficits post-2030 as battery demand outpaces supply. Electric vehicles, energy storage, grid expansion, and data centers drive demand. Supply chain capacity lags badly, threatening decarbonization efforts.
Precious metals had a wild run. Gold hit $4500, driven by the debasement trade and Trump/AI catalysts. Silver gained 22.34% year-to-date through Q2, touching $37.155. Platinum climbed 10%, silver up 6.50% nearing year-end all-time highs. Physical bullion demand stayed steady at 1,150 tonnes, particularly strong in Germany, UK, and China. Month-end flows from institutional rebalancing added periodic volatility to precious metals pricing throughout the year.
Base metals get interesting in 2026-2027. The price index should rise almost 2% across those years. Aluminum, nickel, tin, and copper see the largest increases—copper and tin potentially hitting record highs. Supply constraints keep markets tight through 2027. Iron ore prices decline below 2019 levels. SARB monetary policy decisions continue to influence commodity pricing dynamics through their impact on the rand and regional trade flows.
Bull case for 2026: Gold $5500, Silver $80, Copper $7.50/lb. Bear case: Gold $3500, Silver $45, Copper $5.00/lb. Either way, prices stay elevated. Government debt and tech spending guarantee that. South Africa's rand volatility against major currencies like the Euro–Rand pair adds another layer of risk for metals traders exposed to emerging market producers.
