Against a backdrop of mounting depreciation pressure, the Rwandan Franc faces a challenging trajectory into 2026. The currency lost 6.58% over the past year, hitting an all-time high of 1468 USD/RWF in October 2025. That's not exactly a badge of honor when you're talking about how many of your currency units it takes to buy a dollar.
Here's what the crystal ball shows: Gov.Capital predicts USD/RWF will reach 1,531.516 by November 26, 2026, while Trading Economics sees 1,440.13 by quarter's end. The RWF/USD forecast suggests a 1.61% drop to $0.0006805 in 2026. Technical indicators paint a picture of neutrality—the 14-Day RSI sits at 49.15, with volatility measured at just 0.20%. Translation: the market's not panicking yet.
Short-term projections show the exchange rate bouncing between 1,440.0935 and 1,469.1863 next week, with a monthly average forecast of 1,456.9643. Green trading days only represent 33.33% of the recent 30-day period. Not great, not terrible.
The National Bank of Rwanda sees inflation averaging 6.5% for 2025 and 4.1% for 2026, which matters because monetary policy frameworks directly influence currency stability. Higher inflation rates typically weaken a currency's value in forex markets, as purchasing power declines relative to countries with lower inflation. The central bank's regulatory functions in the foreign exchange market will be crucial for managing these inflationary pressures and maintaining currency stability. Regional exchange rate pressure across EAC-5 countries isn't helping matters either.
Looking further out, the projections get wilder. USD/RWF could hit approximately 1,878.373 by November 2030, with May 2030 forecasts reaching 2,083.056 RWF per USD. That's consistent monthly increases between 0.39% and 0.78% through 2028-2030. The long-term trend points unmistakably upward for USD/RWF, which means downward for the Franc's purchasing power.
The 50-Day SMA stands at $0.000694 for RWF/USD, barely above the current $0.000693 rate. The 200-Day SMA sits at $0.00069. These numbers suggest consolidation rather than dramatic movement.
Bottom line? The Rwandan Franc managed to strengthen 0.12% over the past month, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to the 6.94% depreciation from October 2024 to October 2025. Economic factors and regional competitiveness will shape whatever comes next. Understanding exchange rate factors becomes critical as Rwanda navigates currency pressures similar to those affecting other African currencies in the foreign exchange market.
