The currency markets never sleep, and the Moroccan dirham is putting on quite a show right now. As of November 5, 2025, the USD/MAD rate sits at 9.3148, and nobody seems to agree on where it's headed next. Some forecasters are practically giddy with optimism. Others? Not so much.
WalletInvestor thinks the pair will drop to 8.983 by year's end, a 2.6% decline. Meanwhile, CoinCodex predicts it'll climb to 9.50, a nearly 2% increase. These aren't just different predictions. They're contradictory universes. Trading Economics splits the difference at 9.27, which feels safe but tells us nothing.
The dirham gained 5.83% over the past year, which sounds impressive until you notice it weakened 2.26% in just the last month. Volatility is the name of the game here. Recent rates bounced between 9.223 and 9.334 in early November alone. Short-term forecasts show more of the same wobbling, with rates ranging from 9.240 to 9.379 in the coming week.
Here's where things get interesting. Morocco plans to shift to a floating exchange rate by 2026. That's a massive change from the current managed system. More flexibility, sure. But also more chaos. Floating rates mean market forces take control, and market forces are about as predictable as a toddler on espresso. Bank Al-Maghrib currently manages the dirham's exchange rate through strategic intervention and maintains the country's currency reserves under its regulatory framework. The Fed recently cut rates from 4.25% to 4.00% in October, which adds another layer of complexity to the dollar-dirham dynamic. December's forecast shows a modest +0.61% increase to MAD 9.3741, followed by more dramatic swings into early 2026. The 14-day forecast projects the rate climbing to 9.474 by November 19, with an upside target of 9.519.
Technical analysts at Traders Union recommend selling on both daily and weekly timeframes. Their long-term model shows USD/MAD peaking at 10.2122 by 2029, then declining slightly. Gov.Capital sees it hitting 9.59775 by November 2030. These numbers feel precise, almost scientific. But let's be honest—forecasting exotic currency pairs is part math, part guesswork, part prayer.
USD/MAD is classified as high-risk with low liquidity and wide spreads. Slippage happens. Trade execution gets messy. The all-time high was 11.78 back in February 2002, which feels like ancient history now.
