Gold just punched through $4,100 an ounce on November 24, 2025, and the reason is pretty straightforward: inflation finally stopped screaming, and now everyone thinks the Fed is about to start cutting rates.
Gold broke $4,100 as cooling inflation sparked aggressive Fed rate cut bets across markets.
The yellow metal jumped 1.65% in a single day, smashing through resistance levels like they weren't even there. This comes after gold already hit an insane $4,379.13 back on October 17, which was higher than even those inflation-adjusted 1980 peaks everyone kept talking about. Trading volume spiked alongside the price move, which tells you this wasn't some fluke.
Here's what changed: the latest CPI data showed core prices basically flat. Not soaring, not crashing, just stable. Markets collectively decided this meant the Fed finally has permission to ease up. The CME FedWatch Tool now puts December rate cut odds somewhere between 69% and 74%. That's not speculation anymore, that's consensus.
And it's not just December. September meeting probability hit 94% right after the inflation release dropped. Weak consumer spending plus slowing job growth sealed the deal. Even some Fed officials started sounding dovish, which is central banker speak for “yeah, we're probably cutting.”
Lower rates make gold way more attractive because holding a non-yielding asset suddenly doesn't cost you as much in foregone interest. Real yields—nominal rates minus inflation—dropped hard, and gold benefited immediately. Treasury yields fell right alongside, pushing investors toward alternatives.
Institutional money poured in too. Gold ETFs sucked up $17.3 billion in September 2025 alone. That's not retail investors panicking, that's big money rotating into safe assets. Central banks, especially in emerging markets, kept buying aggressively, putting a solid floor under prices.
Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are now forecasting average prices climbing toward $4,000 in 2026, with support levels holding firm around $3,000. The US Dollar Index hit multi-month lows after the soft inflation print, which usually helps gold but honestly the traditional inverse correlation has been all over the place lately. Currency traders also kept a close eye on the 4pm London fix, which showed dollar weakness accelerating into the close as forex markets digested the dovish Fed pivot. Employment statistics also disappointed, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and reinforcing the case for monetary policy easing.
When central bank interest rate decisions shift toward easing, currency markets typically react by weakening the domestic currency, which amplifies gold's appeal as an alternative store of value.
Bottom line: inflation stalled, rate cuts look inevitable, and gold is eating it up.
